Adapted from an internal Frax memo drafted in September 2021. For a primer of Frax Finance, I recommend Messari’s February 2022 high-level analysis.
Global stablecoin market capitalisation has now surpassed $180B indicating that the combination of traditional-asset stability with digital-asset flexibility and efficiency has already become a powerful combination.
The stablecoin market continues to be largely dominated by fiat-backed assets like USDC and USDT which together account for 80%+ of the market.
Being a centralized issuer of stablecoins comes with certain regulatory scrutiny where very recently the US Treasury and Congress have been considering new policies for stablecoin issuers, particularly around verification of reserves and redemption.
As this scrutiny has intensified over the months, we have seen the growing dominance of algorithmic stablecoins including FRAX and UST. In December 2020, fiat-backed stablecoins market capitalization was 21x that of algorithmic. Today, that ratio is just 5x.
You don’t have to look far to find the plausible drivers of this momentum shift. On October 26th 2021, the SEC secured authority to propose legislation to oversee the stablecoin market and their centralized issuers. This event arguably represented just the start of long-haul legislation building and formal agency oversight.
One algorithmic stablecoin that has see impressive adoption since that announcement has been FRAX where its stablecoin supply has seen 5.6x growth and a 50% average MoM growth rate over the last 6 months.

Founded in 2020, Frax Finance is the world’s first fractional algorithmic stablecoin which is partially backed by collateral and partially stabilized algorithmically.
Frax can be best thought of as an on-chain central bank that can alter its monetary policy based on market conditions around its stablecoin, FRAX. Specifically, the collateral ratio is continuously moved up or down relative to supply/demand of FRAX as measured according to its peg to USD.
If the system needs to re-collateralize, FXS is minted to ensure 1-1 during a redemption call.
Despite being able to loosen or tighten monetary policy, the golden rule within the system is that 1 FRAX can be minted or redeemed for $1 within the system.
We can define this mathematically at the point of FRAX minting:

where F is the units of newly minted FRAX. Collateral units (Y) multiplied by the price of collateral Y (Py) requires a certain market value of FXS to be burned (where Z is the units of FXS burned where Pz is the price in USD of FXS). The FXS value burned is determined by the collateral ratio of the system (Cr).
Likewise for redeeming, FXS may be minted for re-collateralization events based on the collateral ratio itself:

Therefore all FRAX tokens are fungible regardless of collateral ratio they were minted at.
During periods of high FRAX demand (expansion), the collateral ratio falls providing a higher ‘efficiency ratio’. Conversely, periods of lower relative demand for FRAX (contraction), the collateral ratio increases to re-build confidence in its peg.
We can see the system working as intended. With FRAX being mostly in an expansionary period (peg often >$1), the ‘central bank’ has loosened monetary policy beyond its collateral or ‘protocol value’ (PV).
More recently, the system has seen a lower efficiency ratio as it modulates back to an appropriate threshold due to the market conditions.

Frax uses a two token system: FRAX the stablecoin and FXS as the governance token. FXS controls the core system parameters, controls the protocol revenue flowed to both the treasury and FXS holders.
FXS is therefore the only asset that captures the protocol’s value from FRAX’s adoption. Looking at simple cash flows may make understanding the value of FXS may seem intuitive at first but digging deeper into the Fraxs’s mechanics demanded a more nuanced picture.
A valuation framework for FXS needed to incorporate the following key factors:
Different cryptoasset call for idiosyncratic valuation methodologies. Specifically, one type of network within a niche may have idiosyncratic value drivers to another network within another niche.
For an algorithmically dynamic system like Frax, it is worth considering how the lens of which we apply valuation methodologies become dynamic too depending on the state of the network itself.
Given Frax can control a monetary supply larger than its protocol value during times of expansion, it is reasonable to expect the value placed on governing that monetary supply to proportionally increase.
However, a valuation framework here should consider a reduction in the system’s efficiency particularly when the system is stressed tested by wider market movements.
In this case, a primary valuation could then be the book value of the system itself. After all, 1 FRAX can always be created or redeemed for $1. The book value is always important but it’s what the market will pay attention to primarily in these scenarios.

The above framework forecasted that FRAX’s monetary supply (MS) would generally guide FXS valuation with future monetary expansion. Since the start of 2021, this appears largely true with FXS often using FRAX’s MS as a valuation floor.
During periods of stalled MS growth, lower system efficiency, or wider market drawdowns, Frax’s PV appears to be a useful north star for FXS’ market valuation, often bottoming or recovering much closer to its ‘book value’.
More recent catalysts have now pushed FXS higher from its lows back on par with its MS. Of course, time will tell how these dynamics play out longer term.

Given revenue is controlled and shared by FXS holders, cash flow-based methodologies should be weaved in to create a more holistic and composite overall valuation.
Today, the Frax treasury is earning an average of ~$360k of income daily (~$131m annualized) through its AMOs and mint/redeem fees. Cumulative revenue through AMOs has now surpassed $70m.
Another consideration is how much value is placed by the market on governance weight over other protocols. For example, Frax holds 19% of the CVX supply that can be used as proxy governance via the veCRV token.
All these may reasons why we see (and will likely to continue to see) FXS trading at a 100%+ premium to both its MS and PV.
Note - one of the problems with DCF models is identifying the often unclear terminal values of cryptoassets but this may become clearer over time.
The long-term vision of Frax is to offer a crypto-native consumer price index (CPI) called the Frax Price Index (FPI). A first decentralized, permissionless native unit of account which aims to stabilize the costs living standards.
Details around FPI are limited but the new unit of account will ultimately be governed by FXS holders. Therefore, a new composite valuation framework for FXS should be adjusted for future vertical integrations including for FPI. This may include new PVs and revenue streams controlled by FXS holders.

As networks evolve and iterate over time, value captures for their respective cryptoasset need to also evolve and iterate in turn.
This also means that seemingly unrelated headlines may now be key drivers of attention from both users and investors.
Frax, which was once well positioned as a direct response to regulatory pressures on stablecoins, is now being positioned to respond to the macroeconomic concerns at play - stretching from the US, UK, France, and all the way to Japan.
Catalysts evolve just as much as the valuations themselves.
Finally, it’s worth zooming out and understanding where we are heading at a higher level.
As we all navigate through the ‘cocktails of worries’ on the global stage, DeFi is already re-defining the financial system and its services.
Protocols like Frax are quickly becoming decentralized on-chain central banks that will offer CPI-pegged assets for any user, anywhere. Its value flows, algorithms, balance sheets, and parameters are all fully transparent and auditable in real time.
For the poetically inclined - that’s something.
Now let’s push the boundaries for how we value them.
In full disclosure, entities managed by Decentral Park Advisors LLC and its affiliates ("Decentral Park") do own or have invested in positions discussed in this article.
This article and the content contained herein are for information purposes only and any information attached or linked to this material does not constitute legal, accounting, tax, trading strategy or investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future performance.
Leo Lucisano of Decentral Park Capital sits down with Matthew Walsh from Castle Island Ventures. In this episode Leo and Matthew discuss:
Opinions are the author’s own and are for discussion purposes only. This does not represent the views of Decentral Park Capital or its affiliates. Furthermore, this does not constitute legal, accounting, or tax advice of any kind and should not be relied upon as such.
‘This is my wallet. There are many like it, but this one is mine. My wallet is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as I must master my life. Without me, my wallet is useless.’ - Full Leather Jacket
Imagine we live in a world where know-your-customer (KYC) due diligence is not perceived as a burden or barrier to access. Rather, it is freely accessible, ownable, secure, dynamic and portable. It is permission-less permissioning in the most literal sense. It does not restrict access, but rather opens up the wallet holder to more options, to a more frictionless experience with financial products. In a soon to be permanently changed world of weaker national currencies, polar treaty organizations, and the new sanctioned world order, where a future world of surveillance tools (CBDCs), heightened AML regulations, regulatory parity driven by geopolitical strife and censorship, the emerges from the darkness a web 4.0 wallet with an anonymous front end and universally accepted trust mark, and a vaulted and private keyed back end containing evaporating personally identifiable information. This is prosopagnosia with the ability to recognize inherently whom to trust without knowing explicitly why, other than they are compliant with AML/BSA concerns. Herein lies the opportunity for the web 4.0 wallet.
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Hi, I am a web 4.0 wallet, I am the last wallet you will ever own. I will be of you forever.
In this wallet there are cards, to start:
These cards are swiped and provide information and value transfer to any protocol.
Protocols are the card reader, connecting directly with a web 4.0 wallet or via a KYC oracle network.
The wallet holder commits verifying documentation to the wallet, which automatically vets against registries and lists, and provides a dynamic trustmark that travels with the wallet holder. Everywhere.
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Democratization of Finance. The single most abused phrase in modern consumerism. Everything devolves into a banking apparatus. Every brand. Every marketplace. Every technology. Anything that takes wallet share. If it is frictionless to use across services, portable across networks, cost neutral, and has a product feature network effect (meaning several complementary products), it is often touted as a tool for ‘democratizing access to financial services’ of some kind or in some way. What it really is customer stickiness, but that’s for a different discussion. What if ‘democratization’ wasn't a consolidated banking technology stack or products, what if it is a global semi-permissioned wallet that plugged in to all protocols?
The web 4.0 wallet is a semi-permissioned gateway to all blockchains. A user deposits personal identifying information and documents (PII) to a self destructing vault within a wallet. These documents support an identity that is vetted against a KYC oracle (an amalgamation of sanction lists, black lists, etc.) via smart contract and creates a non-identifying trust mark and then destroys the documents. The smart contract is universally approved via treaty and generates a trust mark of the person, and posts to the web 4.0 wallet. The web 4.0 wallet is now verified and holds within it a faceless avatar in the form of a unique identity NFT. The walled garden of manual KYC and insecure and over-permissioning is now negated and you can now begin to use the wallet. The first documents to put into your web 4.0 wallet are reputation based trackers of sorts to include a voter ID card and a driver’s license. The voter ID allows the wallet holder to aggregate participation in decentralized governance and networks, effectively streamlining and making decentralization more user friendly. The driver’s license is an associated record that details the wallet holder’s reputation. This effectively measures the assets held in the wallet and associated proactivity of the walletholder based on voting participation and interaction. The wallet boasts a reputation score and bonding curve that effectively correlates asset positions with good citizenship. The web 4.0 wallet can help shape the future of decentralization, adoption, and real world use cases as the broader world meets blockchain technology and the metaverse for the first time. It can verify an avatar (wear it as clothes), or hold multiple identities and trust marks depending on the use case.
The case to NOT build, and how to monetize, all In the same breath. Why would you not build this? Because it will have the single largest total addressable market in crypto? Let's ask ourselves, are we actually doing something good? No, because you will have no recourse against a third party for relying on their services in verifying that there is no criminal activity pervading your product or protocol. Even worse, you, as the promoter, are making decisions and representations about who and what is not sanctioned and if you get this wrong, you are opening the pandora's box of liability and an argument can be made that you are furthering non-compliance and evasion. Why not then an aggregator of web 3.0 solutions? You can imagine that moving away from the walled garden of the existing KYC/AML/CFT status quo is a daunting enterprise, but maybe start where there are organic use cases exploding in size and willing to help accelerate the movement. DAO treasuries and tooling providers. Bake this into grant and bounty platforms. To start, replace ALL web 2.0 solutions and web 3.0 attempts at manual KYC compliance for a fraction of the human overhead (note, in the new AML paradigm, discretion will evaporate, thereby supporting binary smart contracts determining who is and is not on lists). At some point the calculus to build has to net positive and the new biometrics makes sense.
DISCLAIMER: This does not constitute legal, tax, or accounting advice of any kind and should not be relied upon as such. All links are open source and property of the respective creator, not the author of this material. This is for discussion purposes only. You should consult your own legal counsel and independent advisors with respect to any and all matters. The ideas and concepts are presented here by the author and are views of his own and not that of any other person or entity.
Although the material contained in this material was prepared based on information from public and private sources that the author believes to be reliable, no representation, warranty or undertaking, stated or implied, is given as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and the author who prepared this material and the information herein expressly disclaim any liability for the accuracy and completeness of information contained in this material.
This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. The information, opinions and views contained herein have not been tailored to the investment objectives of any one individual, are current only as of the date hereof and may be subject to change at any time without prior notice. Nothing contained in this material should be construed as investment advice. Any reference to an asset’s past or potential performance is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation or as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit.
Any ideas or strategies discussed herein should not be undertaken by any individual without prior consultation with a financial professional for the purpose of assessing whether the ideas or strategies that are discussed are suitable to you based on your own personal objectives, needs and risk tolerance. The author who prepared this material and the information herein expressly disclaims any liability or loss incurred by any person who acts on the information, ideas or strategies discussed herein.
The information contained herein is not, and shall not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy or an offer to purchase any assets or securities, nor should it be deemed to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
Opinions are the author’s own and are for discussion purposes only. This does not represent the views of Decentral Park Capital or its affiliates. Furthermore, this does not constitute legal, accounting, or tax advice of any kind and should not be relied upon as such.
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) are the new political process. They get a whole lot of people riled up in real time ready and willing to contribute and deploy capital in a way social issues and causes have not had access to until now. As of this writing, DAO treasuries hold $9.5B on the collective balance sheet. In concept, the DAO construct is predicated on delivering trust in an organization by automating organizational processes via smart contract, allowing communities and groups with a common goal to spin up coordination and capital and deploy for a common good in a rapid manner. Presidential candidate and New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Yang gets it:
“But now I’ve realized that the most profound opportunity to fight poverty lies in Web3 technologies,” he said in the Twitter video. “Unfortunately our leaders in DC don’t really get these technologies — they’re a little bit nervous about them, so that’s what we have to change.” - Blockworks referencing Twitter, 2/17/22
DAOs focused on social causes are the next iteration in decentralized autonomous organizations, the organizational paradigm and force for good taking web 3.0 protocols in force since 2016. They have been accelerating in adoption and sophistication these last 18 months in particular, and are now ready for prime time. The model is simple, for example, you purchase an NFT via a minting process, the DAO supports social causes and the NFT provides access, participation rights, and certain privileges. The DAO mobilizes, deploys capital, incentivizes contributions and participation, andevolves always at the most efficient frontier of the overriding consensys strategic direction of the common enterprise. There are several machinations of this, investment DAOs, HR guilds and bounty platforms, decentralized finance protocols, and of course social causes, to name a few.
Recent headlines however are less than optimistic – in practice coordination without the human element, good faith leadership, can be disastrous:
Dunbar’s number tells us groups do not efficiently coordinate over 150 members. I can tell you, as a former military officer, that coordinating individuals in real time reaches diminished marginal utility after you cross 100 soldiers and approach 150. This is perhaps the reason Company size elements are staffed this way under military doctrine is based on sociology.
Let’s explore the arguments for and against DAOs:
Bearish View - Let’s embrace reality, DAOs only exist because founders facing the prospect of enforcement and the advice of savvy attorneys developed the DAO concept as a legal defense to the ‘efforts of others’ prong of the Howey Test. DAOs are merely a securities defense strategy dressed up as a philosophical worldview come Web 3.0 concept. If you have ever built anything, you realize how incredibly difficult it can be to coordinate resources, garner consensus, and execute with speed. These pieces are in contention with each other and the primary reasons founders and CEOs often choose for their companies to remain private (vs. going public). DAOs are no different.
Bullish View - NOW that all of the bearish sentiment is out on the table. Let’s get down to BULLISH business. DAOs are the purest extension of the gig economy and an evolution of…no, an amalgamation of… the best and most efficient versions of all corporate and bureaucratic versions that came before. DAOs can crowdsource and meme a brand or business into existence in a matter of hours. This LIQUID NETWORK EFFECT is THE NEW FINANCIAL METRIC, more so than revenue, it is pure equity value with cash flow and governance rights vested in the DAO token holder’s active relationship with the DAO (not the passive speculation of a shareholder in a 2.0 corporation). DAOs are zealous in their philosophy, and stimulating and romantic in how they challenge our grasp of the republican concept and democracy in general. The catalyzing drivers of the great republic in the years to come will be DAO tooling, coordination, identity, and participation products. If you are building one, we are interested. Generations are disenchanted with the political process and polarized to build and participate in this year of the DAO. This is the new political process with no contribution limits. Vote with your wallet. Pun intended.
DISCLAIMER: This does not constitute legal, tax, or accounting advice of any kind and should not be relied upon as such. All links are open source and property of the respective creator, not the author of this material. This is for discussion purposes only. You should consult your own legal counsel and independent advisors with respect to any and all matters. The ideas and concepts are presented here by the author and are views of his own and not that of any other person or entity.
Although the material contained in this material was prepared based on information from public and private sources that the author believes to be reliable, no representation, warranty or undertaking, stated or implied, is given as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and the author who prepared this material and the information herein expressly disclaim any liability for the accuracy and completeness of information contained in this material.
This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. The information, opinions and views contained herein have not been tailored to the investment objectives of any one individual, are current only as of the date hereof and may be subject to change at any time without prior notice. Nothing contained in this material should be construed as investment advice. Any reference to an asset’s past or potential performance is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation or as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit.
Any ideas or strategies discussed herein should not be undertaken by any individual without prior consultation with a financial professional for the purpose of assessing whether the ideas or strategies that are discussed are suitable to you based on your own personal objectives, needs and risk tolerance. The author who prepared this material and the information herein expressly disclaims any liability or loss incurred by any person who acts on the information, ideas or strategies discussed herein.
The information contained herein is not, and shall not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy or an offer to purchase any assets or securities, nor should it be deemed to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
Opinions are the author’s own and are for discussion purposes only. This does not represent the views of Decentral Park Capital or its affiliates. Furthermore, this does not constitute legal, accounting, or tax advice of any kind and should not be relied upon as such.
THE RUSSIA / UKRAINE CONFLICT accelerates several of my 2022 predictions, creating the perfect storm (and narrative) for the polarization (for the democratization) of permissionless access to decentralized finance VS the demonization of crypto as means to avoid sanctions.
Therefore we likely see an acceleration the need for strong government surveillance and implementation of such sanctions against nefarious global actors. With an Executive Order moments away, here we go…

DISCLAIMER: This does not constitute legal, tax, or accounting advice of any kind and should not be relied upon as such. All links are open source and property of the respective creator, not the author of this material. This is for discussion purposes only. You should consult your own legal counsel and independent advisors with respect to any and all matters. The ideas and concepts are presented here by the author and are views of his own and not that of any other person or entity.
Although the material contained in this material was prepared based on information from public and private sources that the author believes to be reliable, no representation, warranty or undertaking, stated or implied, is given as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and the author who prepared this material and the information herein expressly disclaim any liability for the accuracy and completeness of information contained in this material.
This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. The information, opinions and views contained herein have not been tailored to the investment objectives of any one individual, are current only as of the date hereof and may be subject to change at any time without prior notice. Nothing contained in this material should be construed as investment advice. Any reference to an asset’s past or potential performance is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation or as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit.
Any ideas or strategies discussed herein should not be undertaken by any individual without prior consultation with a financial professional for the purpose of assessing whether the ideas or strategies that are discussed are suitable to you based on your own personal objectives, needs and risk tolerance. The author who prepared this material and the information herein expressly disclaims any liability or loss incurred by any person who acts on the information, ideas or strategies discussed herein.
The information contained herein is not, and shall not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy or an offer to purchase any assets or securities, nor should it be deemed to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell any investment product or service.