Weekly Bulletin #50 - March wk.4 2019


KEVIN'S MACRO OUTLOOK

Last week was relatively uneventful in cryptoland.  Total MCAP is roughly where it was 7 days ago, and only varied about 1% above and below that figure during the week as market participants continue waiting for a catalyst to drive the market decisively one way or the other.  Interestingly, it became clear last week that the Bakkt launch will be delayed again, and – along with ErisX - may be delayed for months as the CFTC seems in no hurry to make a decision on its application.  The market has shrugged this off, which while not necessarily a bullish signal, is certainly not a bearish signal either.  In an ongoing bear market, bad news would normally be expected to send prices down.  The fact that this did not happen is on balance positive, and is a potential indication of sellers exhaustion.  But the real test for BTC will be whether it is able to trade and stay above $4,200, or whether it will fail again (it has failed there 3x in the last months) at that important resistance level.  But while total MCAP and Bitcoin prices have been relatively stable, there continues to be a lot of movement in other token prices, with a mix of gains (BNB, Cardano) and losses (ETH, EOS, Ripple) balancing out the overall market return.  
 
The 1st Quarter of 2019 will end this week, and – barring a large drawdown in coming days – cryptocurrencies will end with quarterly gains for the first time since 4Q17’s vertical rise.  Bitcoin’s ytd gains are currently a modest 7.4%, the Coinbase Index is currently +10.6% ytd, and Decentral Park Capital’s estimated ytd performance is well above both of those figures.


Global market cap: $140B

No change since last week - implying that no new money is entering the space.

No change since last week - implying that no new money is entering the space.


Market shares: Alts continue on an upward trajectory

There is little doubt we are in "Alt Season". What this means, is that as no new money is entering the space, the existing capital is getting re-shuffled, chasing alpha in tokens outside the top-10. In fact, as the following graph implies (aggregate market cap change over time in BTC, Top10 minus BTC, Top 100 minus Top 10 etc), the dislocation of capital has concentrated between Bitcoin and the Top-90, outside the Top-10.

There is little doubt we are in "Alt Season". What this means, is that as no new money is entering the space, the existing capital is getting re-shuffled, chasing alpha in tokens outside the top-10. In fact, as the following graph implies (aggregate market cap change over time in BTC, Top10 minus BTC, Top 100 minus Top 10 etc), the dislocation of capital has concentrated between Bitcoin and the Top-90, outside the Top-10.


Token 7 day returns relative to average returns (70 assets tracked)

Tezos & Rchain are this week's outstanding performers - Tezos driven by the first successful vote and the subsequent decision to reduce minimum stake requirements, allowing for the pool of bakers to grow and Rchain likely driven by information related to the Casper Labs fork. Once more, last weeks winners are this week's losers.

Tezos & Rchain are this week's outstanding performers - Tezos driven by the first successful vote and the subsequent decision to reduce minimum stake requirements, allowing for the pool of bakers to grow and Rchain likely driven by information related to the Casper Labs fork. Once more, last weeks winners are this week's losers.


Bitcoin Mempool activity (Size in MB) 

Last week's comment is still relevant here, with congestion further dissipating this past week -  Smooth sailing, with the least network congestion we have seen in at least 3 months. The    adoption of Segwit    by exchanges and the rapid growth of the Lightning Network surely contribute to the overall health of the network and the queue reductions we have been observing for the past few weeks.

Last week's comment is still relevant here, with congestion further dissipating this past week - Smooth sailing, with the least network congestion we have seen in at least 3 months. The adoption of Segwit by exchanges and the rapid growth of the Lightning Network surely contribute to the overall health of the network and the queue reductions we have been observing for the past few weeks.


Bitcoin Shorts vs Longs

Shorts and longs are still close to parity, with the overall aggregate level of short and long positions being close to a multi-period low (indication of reduced speculative interest).

Shorts and longs are still close to parity, with the overall aggregate level of short and long positions being close to a multi-period low (indication of reduced speculative interest).


Bitcoin combined order book

The order books indicate the same as the Shorts and Longs do - indecision. The support at $3,850 seems to still hold.

The order books indicate the same as the Shorts and Longs do - indecision. The support at $3,850 seems to still hold.


Bitcoin Volatility Index (bitvol.info)*

Every volatility moving average is now exhibiting a negative slope, indicative of the relatively flat week we just went through.

Every volatility moving average is now exhibiting a negative slope, indicative of the relatively flat week we just went through.


PORTFOLIO UPDATES

Bitcoin network statistics here.

Ethereum network statistics here.

Binance token statistics here.

EOS Block Producer voting statistics here

ZCash network statistics here.

Decred network statistics here.

WAX 

Singularity AGI


Important Disclosures

Decentral Park Advisors, LLC (“Decentral Park”) has prepared this material for informational purposes only.  This material does not constitute trading strategy or investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any security or other financial instrument.   Decentral Park does not provide legal or tax advice.  Decentral Park is not acting as a fiduciary under either the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended, or under Section 4975 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended.  This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reproduced, sold or redistributed without our consent. 

Please refer to the full disclaimer here.

Elias Simos